Ellie Stark
A year ago, both the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes ended. As rapidly evolving technology changed the media landscape, creative and business interests were divided about how future of film and television should be created. For example, the proliferation of streaming led to a decrease in royalties for writers and actors, which, during strike negotiations, found a solution in minimum sizes for writer rooms.[1] The rise of streaming also led to studios using AI to create scripts, graphics, and duplicating the likeness of actors.[2] Ultimately, the parties agreed that AI would not be used to create, rewrite, or generate source material for the scripts.[3] However, new AI programs are now on the market, promising to predict the success of a film based on a variety of inputs and the script.
One such tool is Callaia, an AI software that scans and summarizes scripts, similar to a production assistant.[4] Created by the startup Cinelytic, Callaia also creates an estimated budget that allows a user to determine the profitability of a project with different inputs, like dialogue structure, script logic, tonality, conflict, and pacing.[5] The company has identified 19 factors and says its AI model can compute how a certain factors, like Tarantino as a director and Sydney Sweeney as a lead actress, change profitability when combined.[6] Unlike a linear regression model, where the user can add more weight to one factor in an equation and connect the resulting increase in the output to that change, AI operates differently.[7] The AI tool dissects thousands of films into variables and uses predictive analytics to assess how the film will perform at different release windows in different territories, with varying confidence levels.[8]
Cinelytic boasts an 85% success rate.[9] It predicted a very positive forecast for 2019’s Joker, which was surprising at the time considering the film’s $65 million budget and R-rated twist on a beloved IP.[10] External financiers contributed half the budget for the Warner Bros. film, which grossed over $1 billion worldwide.[11] For Joker: Folie à Deux, Warner Bros. kept most of the financing.[12] Callaia showed a more problematic forecast for the sequel of the highest grossing R-rated movie at the time due to its bloated budget.[13] The sequel is estimated to gross a mere $275 million globally, with $450 million needed for the studio to break even.[14]
Instead of entering at the marketing stage of a completed project, Callaia is intended to be used at the point when stakeholders are deciding how to finance a project or whether to greenlight or produce a piece at all.[15] But the tool blurs the line between business and creative choices—when deciding between two actors for a film, the AI program will break down each actor’s performance by region; Cinelytic has said the tool is not determining who to cast, but rather determining what an actor’s value added to the project is.[16]
As the market is inundated with and reliant on films based off of existing IP, will this AI tool highlight original content? Or will it increase the power of AI in choosing which stories are told, just as those striking a year ago feared? Already, its software competes with a script reader, perhaps missing the nuances an algorithm cannot code, like social media trends similar to Barbenheimer, but striking success 85% of the time.
[1] Katie Kilkenny, Would You Do It Again? A Year After Strikes, Hollywood Reckons With the Aftermath, The Hollywood Reporter (July 19, 2024), https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/actors-writers-strikes-one-year-later-1235950418/ [https://perma.cc/2842-DLVP] [https://web.archive.org/web/20241121021405/https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/actors-writers-strikes-one-year-later-1235950418/].
[2] Id.
[3] See id.
[4] Keerthi Vedantam, Cinelytic Launches AI Tool That Scans Scripts, Los Angeles Business Journal (Oct. 7, 2024), https://labusinessjournal.com/technology/cinelytic-launches-ai-tool-that-scans-scripts/ [https://perma.cc/T5VC-ZBA3] [https://web.archive.org/web/20241121021852/https://labusinessjournal.com/technology/cinelytic-launches-ai-tool-that-scans-scripts/].
[5] Id.
[6] The Town with Matthew Belloni, Is There a Right Way to Use AI to Make Movies?, The Ringer (Oct. 31, 2024), https://open.spotify.com/episode/0gYjKq2fQDOZykEkg72L6t?si=0d17b852c1794f74&nd=1&dlsi=e2b3d14c4aab47c0 [https://perma.cc/2F9V-T8TU] [https://web.archive.org/web/20241121022434/https://open.spotify.com/episode/0gYjKq2fQDOZykEkg72L6t?si=0d17b852c1794f74&nd=1&dlsi=e2b3d14c4aab47c0].
[7] Id.
[8] Id.
[9] Cinelytic, https://www.cinelytic.com/ [https://perma.cc/E72H-ESZ2] [https://web.archive.org/web/20241121022719/https://www.cinelytic.com/] (last visited Nov. 17, 2024).
[10] Id.; Rebecca Rubin, ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ to Lose $150 Million to $200 Million in Theatrical Run After Bombing at Box Office, Variety (Oct. 14, 2024), https://variety.com/2024/film/news/joker-folie-a-deux-lose-warner-bros-millions-box-office-flop-1236176479/ [https://perma.cc/69ZG-L28F] [https://web.archive.org/web/20241121023240/https://variety.com/2024/film/news/joker-folie-a-deux-lose-warner-bros-millions-box-office-flop-1236176479/].
[11] Variety, supra note 10.
[12] See Ringer, supra note 6.
[13] Id.
[14] Variety, supra note 10.
[15] Macy Magiera, Cinelytic: Using Predictive Analytics to Evaluate Content Packages and Financing Options, DEG (April 23, 2024), https://www.degonline.org/cinelytic-new-technology-content-financing-options/ [https://perma.cc/G4YS-J39F] [https://web.archive.org/web/20241121024542/https://www.degonline.org/cinelytic-new-technology-content-financing-options/].
[16] See Ringer, supra note 6.