Erika Herrmann
With Major League Baseball exempt from the Sherman Antitrust Act,[1] the remaining major American sports leagues are left in a bizarre relationship with the law: the National Football League, National Basketball Association, and National Hockey League seemingly dominate the markets for their respective sports, with little room for new competition. Since American Needle held “NFL Football” isn’t a valid market definition, courts now weigh major league sports’ potential monopolistic anticompetitive actions in a rule of reason analysis, determining whether the market harms outweigh the benefits.[2] Market definition is key to any antitrust analysis—in order to determine if there’s anti-competitive behavior, the prerequisite is determining the sphere of competition.[3]
Broadcasting space and network deals are a huge part of major sport leagues’ revenues. But, while the MLB, NBA, and NFL bring in a majority of their revenues from broadcasting contracts reaching up to ten years for $100 billion,[4] the NHL’s upcoming broadcast deal is a comparably meager $7.7 billion for twelve years of exclusive broadcast rights.[5] The NHL’s biggest chunk of revenue actually comes from ticket sales.[6] In terms of the complicated, fact-driven pursuit of defining a market, this means that any given NHL game being broadcast isn’t just competing with another NHL game on at the same time, but with the more popular NBA, NFL, or MLB game that may be being simultaneously broadcast at the same time.
Maybe in an effort to get itself more space in the broadcasting sphere, the NHL has set itself apart from the other major sports leagues in another major way this year. NHL All-Star competitions shone bright a few decades ago but have been fading in favor with fans and players alike since the NHL began participating in more international tournaments.[7] The League was first off to the Olympics in 1998, but had to skip the most recent Games in 2018 and 2022 (for financial and COVID concerns, respectively).[8] So, it was big news in February 2024 for NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman to announce that NHL players would participate in the upcoming 2026 and 2030 Olympics, and, to end the best-on-best drought, the NHL would forego its 2025 All-Star competition for a new concept: The 4 Nations Face-Off.[9] Canada, the United States, Finland, and Sweden would all send their top players to return to international play in a round robin tournament in February 2025.[10]
This was a new solution to a tradition that was growing tired. However, the 4 Nations Face-Off had one big thing stopping it from being the NHL’s newest trick for an annual uptick in ticket sales: nobody cared.[11] Tickets were concerningly expensive and slow-moving, and arenas were expected to be at least partially empty.[12] Players were pulling out their bids to participate in the tournament, even while remaining active on rosters in regular NHL games.[13] It could have been too little, too late for what was doomed to ultimately be another low-stakes exhibition game. It should have been a lesson in better marketing, or more strategic ticket pricing, or contract negotiations to ensure player participation. But none of that happened. What kept the play alive?
Sudden geopolitical tensions between the United States and Canada: an incredibly complicated development in international relations, but an incredibly timely development for a major sports league about to host a U.S. vs. Canada hockey game.[14] The two teams’ first meeting saw three fights in the first nine seconds, with the U.S. taking the win.[15] The second game, and the 4 Nations Face-Off final, 9.3 million people broke the all-time record for U.S. viewership of a non-Olympic hockey game, watching Canada ultimately take home the gold.[16]
The Trump administration’s announcement of planned tariffs and potential annexation of Canada were a clear catalyst for fans and players alike to ignite their national pride, significantly raising the stakes of the tournament and as a result, interest in NHL hockey.[17] In the scope of scraping up a bigger share of the broadcasting space, this certainly had a short-term positive impact.
That being said, tariffs and tensions weigh more in the long run. Since the NHL relies on revenue sharing for player compensation, any adverse effect on the Canadian economy actually effects the League in its entirety.[18]
What’s more, with the current collective bargaining agreement expiring in September, the NHL will have to choose a path forward that considers the tariffs’ effect on the League’s salary cap, and the players labor demands in general.[19] The NHL’s recent past is rife with labor issues, resulting in several lockouts in the past 20 years, even losing the entirety of the 2004–2005 season.[20]
There’s a lot of uncertainties that lie ahead for the NHL. Geopolitical problems may have served them well as a quick boost in interest, but ultimately, a well-run league needs to be able to operate effectively in its market, and its players are a key component of that. Absent any significant operational changes, the NHL will likely continue to gain most of its revenue from ticket sales in the near future. If it wants to compete more effectively with the NBA, MLB, and NFL, it should look to creating more long-term fan interest that can lead to more lucrative long-term broadcasting deals.
[1] Federal Baseball Club of Baltimore, Inc. v. National League of Professional Baseball Clubs, et al, 259 U.S. 200, 209 (1922).
[2] Nathaniel Grow, Regulating Professional Sports Leagues, 72 Washington & Lee L. Rev. 573, 590 (2015).
[3] Market definition, Legal Info. Inst., https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/market_definition [https://perma.cc/SG4R-RZKZ] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406193049/https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/market_definition] (last visited Apr. 4, 2025).
[4] Travis Clark, The ultimate guide to the sports rights deals changing how we watch games, The Current, Sep. 3, 2024, https://www.thecurrent.com/guide-us-streaming-sports-rights-ctv [https://perma.cc/V7K8-AMXB] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406193216/https://www.thecurrent.com/guide-us-streaming-sports-rights-ctv].
[5] Julian McKenzie, NHL, Canadian media company Rogers agree to 12-year, $7.7 billion TV deal, N. Y. Times, Mar. 31, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6245657/2025/03/31/nhl-rogers-sportsnet-broadcasts/ [https://perma.cc/S5AA-JTD8] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406193501/https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6245657/2025/03/31/nhl-rogers-sportsnet-broadcasts/].
[6] David Nelson, This is the NHL’s surprisingly different revenue model that sets it apart from the NFL, NBA or MLB, AS USA, Nov. 21, 2024, https://en.as.com/other_sports/this-is-the-nhls-surprisingly-different-revenue-model-that-sets-it-apart-from-the-nfl-nba-or-mlb-n/ [https://perma.cc/D239-JQUN] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406193618/https://en.as.com/other_sports/this-is-the-nhls-surprisingly-different-revenue-model-that-sets-it-apart-from-the-nfl-nba-or-mlb-n/].
[7] Adam Proteau, It's Time The NHL Ends All-Star Games With The Return Of Best-On-Best Hockey, The Hockey News, Feb. 15, 2025, https://thehockeynews.com/news/opinion-its-time-the-nhl-ends-all-star-games-with-the-return-of-best-on-best-hockey [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406222756/https://thehockeynews.com/news/opinion-its-time-the-nhl-ends-all-star-games-with-the-return-of-best-on-best-hockey].
[8] NHL to return to Olympics in 2026, 2030, hold '4 Nations Face-Off' in 2025, TSN, Feb. 2, 2024, https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/nhl-to-return-to-olympics-in-2026-2030-hold-4-nations-face-off-in-2025-1.2070919 [https://perma.cc/QN6R-4G69] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406223211/https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/nhl-to-return-to-olympics-in-2026-2030-hold-4-nations-face-off-in-2025-1.2070919].
[9] Id.
[10] Id.
[11] Tom Banks, Concerns Continue To Grow Over Major Lack of Excitement and Ticket Sales for the Four-Nations Face-Off, House of Hockey, Jan. 16. 2025, https://www.houseofhockey.net/nhl/news/concerns-continue-to-grow-over-major-lack-of-excitement-and-ticket-sales-for-the-four-nations-face-off [https://perma.cc/Y49P-JJXF] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406223424/https://www.houseofhockey.net/nhl/news/concerns-continue-to-grow-over-major-lack-of-excitement-and-ticket-sales-for-the-four-nations-face-off].
[12] Id.
[13] Nick Horwat, NHL Not Concerned About More Players Skipping 4 Nations, On SI, Jan. 28, 2025, https://www.si.com/onsi/breakaway/news-feed-page/nhl-not-concerned-more-players-skipping-4-nations-face-off-2025 [https://perma.cc/X697-47AN] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406223557/https://www.si.com/onsi/breakaway/news-feed-page/nhl-not-concerned-more-players-skipping-4-nations-face-off-2025].
[14] Greg Wyshynski, Has international hockey replaced the NHL All-Star Game?, ESPN, Feb. 21, 2025, https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/43949941/nhl-4-nations-face-2025-all-star-game-future-tournaments-world-cup [https://perma.cc/VKV4-WH8Z] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406223808/https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/43949941/nhl-4-nations-face-2025-all-star-game-future-tournaments-world-cup].
[15] Id.
[16] Id.
[17] Jimmy Golen, American fans lightly boo ‘O Canada’ before 4 Nations Face-Off title game, Assoc. Press News, Feb. 20, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/trump-us-canada-hockey-four-nations-f2d19c33861b4f87f007b7f3f414f910 [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406224056/https://apnews.com/article/trump-us-canada-hockey-four-nations-f2d19c33861b4f87f007b7f3f414f910].
[18] Lauren Merola, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman says U.S. tariffs could be ‘painful’ for league if Canadian dollar drops, The Athletic, Mar. 6 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6180400/2025/03/06/gary-bettman-united-states-canada-tariffs-nhl/ [https://perma.cc/NS3B-VA3R] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406224237/https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6180400/2025/03/06/gary-bettman-united-states-canada-tariffs-nhl/].
[19] Nicholas J. Cotsonika, NHL, NHLPA to begin talks on new Collective Bargaining Agreement in April, NHL.com, Mar. 19. 2025, https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-set-to-begin-negotiating-collective-bargaining-agreement-with-players-association [https://perma.cc/T73N-5A3F] [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406224407/https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-set-to-begin-negotiating-collective-bargaining-agreement-with-players-association].
[20] Adam Proteau, NHL, NHLPA's New Relationship Is A Good Start For Avoiding Another Lockout, The Hockey News, Dec. 12, 2024, https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl-nhlpas-relationship-good-start-162404476.html [https://web.archive.org/web/20250406160327/https://gum.criteo.com/syncframe?origin=publishertag&topUrl=sports.yahoo.com&gdpr=0&gdpr_consent=&us_privacy=1YNN&gpp=DBABBg~BVoIgACY.QA&gpp_sid=8].