Just this year, Idai, one of the most deadly cyclones to hit Africa in decades, made landfall in Mozambique, causing intense rains across Zimbabwe and Malawi (Taylor). The cyclone left 749 dead, 2,390 injured, and affected 2.9 million people (Africa News). Simultaneously, last year, Cape Town narrowly avoided running completely out of water for its 4 million residents. How can these areas, located adjacent to one another in the southern part of Africa, experience both violent flooding and disastrous drought? Climate change exacerbates both climates by pushing records for both wet and dry weather each year (Schwartz). While singular weather events cannot be directly related to climate change, researchers recently found that one-third of record dry months in the African regions that were studied “would not have occurred without the influence of climate change” (Schwartz).
March of 2019 also brought extreme flooding in the U.S., mostly in Nebraska and many parts of the Midwest. Heavy rainfall and fast snowmelt, called a “bomb cyclone”, caused the flooding (Schwartz). The cost of damage has exceeded US$1.3 billion, as floods destroyed an estimated 2,000 homes and 340 businesses (Schwartz). Similar to the effects of flooding in Southern Africa, the Midwest has also seen damages to crops and agriculture.
With increased flooding and drought globally, it is important to analyze what this means for civilization. In the case of agriculture, drought spells are one of the most stressful inhibitors in the production of crops, leading to decreased yield and even failure of crops. Agricultural drought is defined as a situation in which soil moisture is below levels required for crop production that persists for over a month, and it affects the output of grain crops through three main mechanisms: reduction of canopy absorption of incident radiation and early leaf rolling, reduction of radiation use efficiency, and reduction of harvest index (Hlavinka). The impacts of drought on food production can be seen in regions of South Africa, where 2018 droughts created projected economic losses of US$495 million (Roelf).
The same effect can be seen with floods, which can both deprive plants of oxygen, killing them, or completely wash away fields, leaving nothing behind. Many crops are intolerant to flooding, and such weather events can cause extreme loss of agriculture production, creating economic losses and fluctuating food prices (Butzen). For example, cyclone Idai destroyed large plots of cornfields in Zimbabwe. With only seven months of maize left, Zimbabwe’s government must try to find a way to mitigate its agricultural problems. Zimbabwe already has issues of food shortages and a deepening food crisis (Marima). The recent floods have only exacerbated the issue, driving up the prices of what little food remains to unattainable levels. Thus, climate change increases crop destruction and amplifies food insecurity, leading to further malnutrition in some of the world’s poorest areas that are often incredibly climate prone. This link between climate change, agricultural destruction, and food insecurity is often examined as an end point in the media’s coverage when in fact there are broader impacts felt by generations to come.
It is well accepted internationally that food insecurity leads to childhood developmental risks and poorer health (Cook). Decreased health and developmental issues can lead students to miss or fall behind in school, causing even further setbacks. It can be concluded then that climate change, as well as the impacts of drought and flooding amplified by climate change, can lead to a reduction in childhood education. Research by Alderman of the World Bank examines the impact of malnutrition on schooling and human capital, defined as the stock of knowledge and personal attributes embodied in one’s ability to do labor. Alderman’s work finds that improved preschooler nutritional status is related to increased height as an adult, increased number of school years completed, and an earlier age for beginning school. Shocks, including floods and droughts, have a profound impact on the lives of adolescents, with research showing that children in developed countries without shocks would be an average of 3.4 cm taller and have completed 0.85 more grades of schooling (Alderman). Furthermore, a study in Uganda found that negative rainfall led to lower primary school enrollment among older girls, given that older females play a more important role in household labor during periods of difficulty (Randell). Such research reveals how child development and education can be interrupted by climate change, furthering disparities and disadvantages faced by women, young girls, and those who are food insecure.
Whether directly affected in a disaster—such as schools being washed away as with Idai or students deprived of water in Cape Town—or influenced in a much more nuanced way—through crop deficits and malnutrition—the youngest generations face an uncertain and unstable future. Climate change, along with the increased drought and flooding it contributes to, can be shown to decrease educational opportunities in Southern Africa and create a lasting impact on future generations to come.
Bibliography:
Africa News. Cyclone Idai: Mozambique starts cholera vaccination as cases mount. February 4, 2019
Alderman, H., Hoodinott, J., and Kinsey, B., Long Term Consequences of Early Childhood Malnutrition, Households in Conflict Network––University of Sussex, July 2004.
Butzen, Steve. Flooding Impact on Crops. Agronomy Information Manager, Pioneer.
Cook, John T., et al.A brief indicator of household energy security: associations with food security, child health, and child development in US infants and toddlers. Pediatrics, October 1, 2008.
Hlavinka, Petr, et al. Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 149, Issues 3-4, March 11, 2009.
Marima, Tendai. Cyclone Idai destroys Zimbabwe farms, depending food crisis.Aljazeera, March 29, 2019.
Randell, H., Gray, C., Climate Change and Educational Attainment in the Global Tropics,2017 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, 2017.
Roelf, Wendell. Drought inflicts mounting losses to crops in South Africa’s Western Cape.Reuters, Environment, March 1, 2018.
Schwartz, John. More Floods and More Droughts: Climate Change Delivers Both.The New York Times, December 12, 2018.
Taylor, Alan. The Aftermath of Cyclone Idai in Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The Atlantic, March 25, 2019.